There are common risk factors that can help identify patients at risk of a COPD exacerbation, including:
Previous Exacerbations
A history of exacerbations is the strongest predictor of future exacerbation risk. The risk of re-hospitalisation or death also increases substantially after a first severe COPD exacerbation, and with each subsequent event.10
Additional Markers to Consider (Biological)
Patients with raised eosinophil counts not on an ICS are at higher risk of exacerbating.31
Symptom Burden
Increasing symptoms such as dyspnea or frequent productive cough are associated with an increased risk of exacerbations.10,32*
Lung Function
Poor lung function (i.e., FEV1) is associated with a greater risk of exacerbations, however, patients with a higher FEV1 (GOLD Stage 1) may lose more lung function following an exacerbation than patients with more severe COPD.2,33
Syndemics
COPD patients with other concomitant conditions such as cancer, heart failure, dyspepsia or asthma are at greater risk of experiencing frequent exacerbations.34 Emerging data suggests a syndemic occurrence between
COPD and cardiovascular disease, with fundamental pathobiological links between the heart and lungs causing an aggregation of the two diseases and leading to a worsening in burden and prognosis of disease.4
